Showing posts with label BONDS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BONDS. Show all posts

Wednesday, 2 September 2015

Strategies of Hedge Fund

17:19:00

Hedge funds strategies and hedge Funds in themselves have made headlines over the years due to various reasons.  You will be awe struck when you find out what kinds of perks are given by some hedge Fund Firms to their Analysts/Managers.
  • Former hedge fund Manager, Julian Robertson would fly his analysts for hiking and camping trips to the West as part of a team-building exercise.
  • Texan hedge fund manager Kyle Bass takes his whole investment team for spear fishing for a week in the Bahamas, every year.
  • Paul Tudor Jones orders his traders fried chicken on Fridays on a good week. But if they have a down week, they get sushi.
  • Blackstone, a hedge fund firm, has an in-house shoe shine person.
  • Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates has a luxury bus that picks up its analysts in the city every morning. The bus has an individual TV on the back of every seat along with drinks and snacks onboard.
So if you want to enjoy such perks, you have to be 100% amazing at your job.
And what’s the answer to be an Amazing Hedge Fund Analyst/Manager? Your ability to properly apply Hedge Funds Strategies to get those handsome returns for your investors.
In this article, we will be covering the common Hedge Fund Strategies that make these funds successful
The Major Hedge Funds Strategies are as follows:

# 1 Long/Short Equity Strategy


  • In this type of Hedge Fund Strategy, Investment manager maintains long and short positions in equity and equity derivative securities.
  • Thus, the fund manager will purchase the stocks that they feels is undervalued and Sell those which are overvalued.
  • Wide varieties of techniques are employed to arrive at an investment decision. It includes both quantitative and fundamental techniques.
  • Such a hedge fund strategy can be broadly diversified or narrowly focused on specific sectors.
  • It can range broadly in terms of exposure, leverage, holding period, concentrations of market capitalization and valuations.
  • Basically, the fund goes long and short in two competing companies in the same industry.
  • But most managers do not hedge their entire long market value with short positions.

Example of Long/Short Equity

  • If Tata Motors looks cheap relative to Hyundai, a trader might buy $100,000 worth of Tata Motors and short an equal value of Hyundai shares. The net market exposure is zero in such case.
  • But if Tata Motors does outperform Hyundai, the investor will make money no matter what happens to the overall market.
  • Suppose Hyundai rises 20% and Tata Motors rises 27%; the trader sells Tata Motors for $127,000, covers the Hyundai short for $120,000 and pockets $7,000.
  • If Hyundai falls 30% and Tata Motors falls 23%, he sells Tata Motors for $77,000, covers the Hyundai short for $70,000, and still pockets $7,000.
  • If the trader is wrong and Hyundai outperforms Tata Motors, however, he will lose money.

# 2 Market Neutral Strategy


  • By contrast, in market-neutral strategy, hedge funds target zero net-market exposure which means that shorts and longs have equal market value.
  • In such a case the managers generate their entire return from stock selection.
  • This strategy has a lower risk than the first strategy that we discussed, but at the same time the expected returns are also lower.

Example of Market Neutral Strategy

  • A fund manager may go long in the 10 biotech stocks that are expected to outperform and short the 10 biotech stocks that may underperform.
  • Therefore, in such a case the gains and losses will offset each other inspite how the actual market does.
  • So even if the sector moves in any direction the gain on the long stock is offset by a loss on the short.

# 3 Merger Arbitrage Strategy


  • In such a hedge fund strategy the stocks of two merging companies are simultaneously bought and sold to create a riskless profit.
  • This particular hedge fund strategy looks at the risk that the merger deal will not close on time, or at all.
  • Because of this small uncertainty, this is what happens:
  • The target company’s stock will sell at a discount to the price that the combined entity will have, when the merger is done.
  • This difference is the arbitrageur’s profit.
  • The merger arbitrageurs care only about the probability of the deal being approved and the time it will take to close the deal.

Example of Market Arbitrage Strategy

Consider these two companies– ABC Co. and XYZ Co.
  • Suppose ABC Co is trading at $20 per share when XYZ Co. comes along and bids $30 per share which is a 25% premium.
  • The stock of ABC will jump up, but will soon settle at some price which is higher than $20 and less than $30 until the takeover deal is closed.
  • Let’s say that the deal is expected to close at $30 and ABC stock is trading at $27.
  • To seize this price-gap opportunity, a risk arbitrageur would purchase ABC at $28, pay a commission, hold on to the shares, and eventually sell them for the agreed $30 acquisition price once the merger is closed.
  • Thus the arbitrageur makes a profit of $2 per share, or a 4% gain, less the trading fees.

# 4 Convertible Arbitrage


  • Convertibles generally are the hybrid securities including a combination of a bond with an equity option.
  • A convertible arbitrage hedge fund typically includes long convertible bonds and short a proportion of the shares into which they convert.
  • In simple terms it includes a long position on bonds and short position on common stock or shares.
  • It attempts to exploit profits when there is a pricing error made in the conversion factor i.e. it aims to capitalize on mispricing between a convertible bond and its underlying stock.
  • If the convertible bond is cheap or if it is undervalued relative to the underlying stock, the arbitrageur will take a long position in the convertible bond and a short position in the stock.
  • On the other hand, if the convertible bond is overpriced relative to the underlying stock, the arbitrageur will take a short position in the convertible bond and a long position in the underlying stock.
  • In such a strategy managers try to maintain a delta-neutral position so that the bond and stock positions offset each other as the market fluctuates.
  • (Delta Neutral Position- Strategy or Position due to which the value of the Portfolio remains unchanged when small changes occur in the value of the underlying security.)
  • Convertible arbitrage generally thrives on volatility.
  • The reason for the same is that, more the shares bounce, more the opportunities arise to adjust the delta-neutral hedge and book trading profits.

Example of Convertible Arbitrage Strategy

  • Visions Co. decides to issue a 1-year bond that has a 5% coupon rate.  So on the first day of trading it has a par value of $1,000 and if you held it to maturity (1 year) you will have collected $50 of interest.
  • The bond is convertible to 50 shares of Vision’s common shares whenever the bondholder desires to get them converted. The stock price at that time was $20.
  • If Vision’s stock price rises to $25 then the convertible bondholder could exercise their conversion privilege. They can now receive 50 shares of Vision’s stock.
  • 50 shares at $25 is worth $1250. So if the convertible bondholder bought the bond at issue ($1000), they have now made the profit of $250. If instead they decide that they want to sell the bond, they could command $1250 for the bond.
  • But what if the stock price drops to $15? The conversion comes to $750 ($15 *50). If this happens you could simply never exercise your right to convert to common shares. You can then collect the coupon payments and your original principal at maturity.

# 5 Capital Structure Arbitrage


  • It is a strategy in which a firm’s undervalued security is bought and its overvalued security is sold.
  • Its objective is to profit from the pricing inefficiency in the issuing firm’s capital structure.
  • It is a strategy used by many directional, quantitative and market neutral credit hedge funds.
  • It includes going long in one security in a company’s capital structure while at the same time going short in another security in that same company’s capital structure.
  • For example, long the sub-ordinate bonds and short the senior bonds, or long equity and short CDS.

Example of Capital Structure Arbitrage

An example could be – A news of particular company performing badly.
In such a case, both its bond and stock prices are likely to fall heavily. But the stock price will fall by a greater degree for several reasons like:
  • Stockholders are at a greater risk of losing out if the company is liquidated because of the priority claim of the bondholders
  • Dividends are likely to be reduced.
  • The market for stocks is usually more liquid as it reacts to news more dramatically.
  • Whereas on the other hand annual bond payments are fixed.
  • An intelligent fund manager will take advantage of the fact that the stocks will become comparatively much cheaper than the bonds.

# 6 Fixed-Income Arbitrage


  • This particular Hedge fund strategy makes profit from arbitrage opportunities in interest rate securities.
  • Here opposing positions are assumed in the market to take advantage of small price inconsistencies, limiting interest rate risk. The most common type of fixed-income arbitrage is swap-spread arbitrage.
  • In swap-spread arbitrage opposing long and short positions are taken in a swap and a Treasury bond.
  • Point to note is that such strategies provide relatively small returns and can cause huge losses sometimes.
  • Hence this particular Hedge Fund strategy is referred to as ‘Picking up nickels in front of a steamroller!’ 

Example of Fixed Income Arbitrage

A Hedge fund has taken the following position: Long 1,000 2-year Municipal Bonds at $200.
  • 1,000 x $200 = $200,000 of risk (unhedged)
  • The Municipal bonds payout 6% annually interest rate – or 3% semi.
  • Duration is 2 years, so you receive the principal after 2 years.
After your first year, the amount that you have made assuming that you choose to reinvest the interest in a different asset will be:
$200,000 x .06 = $12,000
After 2 years, you will have made $12000*2= $24,000.
But you are at risk the entire time of:
  • The municipal bond not being paid back.
  • Not receiving your interest.
So you want to hedge this duration risk
The Hedge Fund Manager Shorts Interest Rate Swaps for two companies that pays out 6% annual interest rate (3% semi-annually) and is taxed at 5%.
$200,000 x .06 = $12,000 x (0.95) = $11,400
So for 2 years it will be: $11,400 x 2 = 22,800
Now if this is what the Manager pays out, then we must subtract this from the interest made on the Municipal Bond: $24,000-$22,800 = $1,200
Thus $1200 is the profit made.

# 7 Event Driven


  • In such a strategy the investment Managers maintain positions in companies that are involved in mergers, restructuring, tender offers, shareholder buybacks, debt exchanges, security issuance or other capital structure adjustments.

Example of Event Drive Strategy

One example of Event driven strategy is distressed securities.
In this type of strategy, the hedge funds buy the debt of companies that are in financial distress or have already filed for bankruptcy.
If the company has yet not filed for bankruptcy, the manager may sell short equity, betting the shares will fall when it does file.

# 8 Global Macro


  • This hedge fund strategy aims to make profit from large economic and political changes in various countries by focusing in bets on interest rates, sovereign bonds and currencies.
  • Investment managers analyze the economic variables and what impact they will have on the markets. Based on that they develop investment strategies.
  • The Managers analyze how macroeconomic trends will affect interest rates, currencies, commodities or equities around the world and take positions in the asset class that is most sensitive in their views.
  • Variety of techniques like systematic analysis, quantitative and fundamental approaches, long and short-term holding periods are applied in such case.
  • Managers usually prefer highly liquid instruments like futures and currency forwards for implementing this strategy.

Example of Global Macro Strategy

An excellent example of a Global Macro Strategy is George Soros shorting of the pound sterling in 1992. He then took a huge short position of over $10 billion worth of pounds.
He consequently made a profit from the Bank of England’s reluctance to either raise its interest rates to levels comparable to those of other European Exchange Rate Mechanism countries or to float the currency.
Soros made 1.1 billion on this particular trade.

# 9 Short Only


  • Short selling is an investment strategy which includes selling the shares that are anticipated to fall in value.
  • In order to successfully implement this strategy, the fund managers have to scour the financial statements, talk to the suppliers or competitors to dig any signs of trouble for that particular company.

Top Hedge Funds of 2014


Below are the Top Hedge Funds of 2014 with their respective hedge fund strategies-
Top Hedge Fund Listssource: Prequin
Also, note the the hedge funds Strategy distribution of the Top 20 hedge funds compiled by Prequin
Breakdown of Top 20 hedge fund by strategies 1
source: Prequin
  • Clearly, Top hedge funds follow Equity Strategy with 75% of the Top 20 funds following the same.
  • Relative Value strategy is followed by 10% of the Top 20 Hedge Funds
  • Macro Strategy, Event Driven and Multi-Strategy makes the remaining 15% of the strategy

Conclusion


Hedge Funds do generate some amazing compounded annual returns. However, these returns depend on your ability to properly apply Hedge Funds Strategies to get those handsome returns for your investors. While majority of the hedge funds apply Equity Strategy, others follow Relative Value, Macro Strategy, Event Driven etc. You can also master these hedge fund strategies by tracking the markets, investing and learning continuously.
So, which hedge fund strategy do you like the most?

Wednesday, 19 August 2015

Bonds vs FDs! What should investors choose?

15:08:00
An investor always seems to be in a dilemma as far as parking a proportion of savings is concerned. With interest rates on fixed deposits yielding around 8-9%, the hunt is always on for better fixed income alternatives. The answer to this conundrum lies in the resurgent bond markets. Moderation in inflation, healthy onset of monsoon, resilient domestic currency and a series of interest rate cuts have set the bond prices soaring. Effectively, 10-year benchmark sovereign bond yields have moved substantially lower.
 
In light of such a backdrop, the bond markets seem alluring, with several corporate raising capital through non-convertible debentures at much attractive interest rates for the investors. Volatility in the broader markets makes it compelling to scout for avenues, which provides capital protection. However, the food for thought is how different are bonds from fixed deposits. It is imperative to compare the merits and demerits between bonds and fixed deposits.
 
There are several parameters, which can throw light on the differentiation. We adumbrate the same:
 
Capital Appreciation: Bond prices are inversely correlated with the sovereign yields, implying that bond prices go up when interest rates go down. The trajectory of the bond market is predominantly influenced by the interest rate trajectory. With the monetary policy of India being data driven, there is scope for monetary easing if the macroeconomic situation permits the same. The next rate cut is primarily dependent on the progress of monsoon and its effects on inflation. In fact, the RBI governor’s comment that the monsoon has been ‘quite strong’ has rekindled hopes of a rate cut sooner than earlier anticipated. Better onset of monsoon and positive government action can pave the path for further reduction in interest rates. In addition, there is a wide expectation that the government will contain food inflation through effective food management policies. Fiscal consolidation, improving economic growth and containment of inflation should ensure additional rate cuts to the tune of 50-75 basis points by the end of this fiscal year. Effectively, there is a great upside potential for the bond prices. However, FDs are deprived of any capital appreciation.
 
Tax benefits: Investments in NCDs spanning more than one-year period falls into long term capital gains tax category, while returns on FDs do not enjoy this privilege. In addition, Tax free bonds (issued by government institutions) score much better than Bank FDs, when the yields on tax free bonds are compared with the post-tax returns on the latter. For instance, an investor (belonging to 30% tax bracket) fetches annualised return of 7.5% on tax free bond, while a FD may offer 8.5%. However, back of the envelope calculations reveals a post-tax return of around 5.9% on the FD, literally 160 basis points lower than the yield on the tax free bond.
 

InstrumentPre-Tax returnPost-Tax return
Tax Free Bond9.75% (implied)7.5%
Fixed Deposits8.5%5.9%
 
Also, tax is deducted at source when Banks pay more than Rs10,000 as interest payment in  a year. On the other hand, listed NCDs in the demat form attract no TDS.
 
Security: Non convertible debentures (NCDs) can be secured and unsecured as well. Secured NCDs provide the investor claim on the assets of the company, if it fails to meet the debt obligations. In case of a default by commercial Banks on its FD, Reserve Bank of India insures the sum only up to Rs. 1 lakh (including the principal and interest). Corporate Fixed deposits are unsecured, which therefore entails higher risk.
 
Exit: NCDs are traded on the exchange. This enables them to be transferred and permits exit before the maturity date. However, premature withdrawal from FDs attract penalty and also implies lower returns than the amount one would have received if held till maturity.
 
Credit Rating: All NCDs are rated by credit agencies, while corporate fixed deposits issued only by NBFCs hold credit rating.
 
Considering these factors, NCDs clearly have an upper hand over FDs. Although there may not be wide differentials in respect with interest rates on taxable NCDs and FDs, the risk/reward ratio is inclined towards the former. Investments in Bonds/NCDs should form an essential part of fixed income portfolio, particularly if one is looking at short-medium term horizon.


-Hitesh Jain

Why are tax-free bonds a better investment opportunity for retail investors?

15:06:00
With the tax-free bonds about to set in motion soon, retail investors have a marvelous future to look forward. These bonds are reported to be issued to raise Rs 40,000 crore this FY by top-notch brands in public sector including Indian Railways Finance Corporation, National Highways Authority of India, and Housing and Urban Development Corporation. With these tax-free bonds, retail investors can make anywhere between 7.3 to 7.5 per cent, depending on the maturity period of 10 to 20 years. 

Investors can invest in more than one company and up to Rs 10 lakh in each issue while still being in the retail category. Investment in the tax-free bonds can be made by retail investors, individual investors, Hindu Undivided Family as well as NRIs, while individuals investing more than Rs 10 lakh are categorised as high networth individuals.

The interest accumulated is non-taxable under Section 10(15)(iv)(h). No tax will be deducted at the source from the interest that is accrued to the holders. The proceeds of these bonds are expected to be invested in various infrastructure projects and this is the reason they are only issued by PSUs. Number crunchers observe these tax-free bonds as long-term investment and predict that more retail investors will be attracted to them because of the volatility in equity markets.

The bonds come as a great relief for investors at the time when banks are cutting deposit rates. And while bank deposits are better in terms of liquidity, tax-free bonds offer better returns, although they have longer maturity period and don‘t come with the flexibility of selling them in the secondary market. But the catch is PSU issued bonds that don’t come with the added risk of non-repayment. Investors will be paid interests annually with the amount directly credited to their bank accounts. This makes it a perfect option for those seeking regular income.

Analysts suggest that risk of re-investment is cut down because of the long-term nature of these bonds. The prices of the bonds and their interest rates are inversely proportional. So, when yields reduce, the prices rise and when prices fall, it goes the other way around. In case the rates are cut down by 100 bps, investors will still get an appreciation of five to seven per cent. With that many lucrative options and benefits associated with it, locking in money in tax-free bonds issued by public sector companies is the way to go for retail investors. 

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