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Wednesday, 23 September 2015

How does FDI affect the Currency of a country.

Our nation has a limited resource of Foreign reserves and we are Net Importers. Net Importers means our Imports are more than our Exports. As being Net Importers we have to shell out Foreign reserves and buy the Imports, which is a burden on our economy.

Let’s have a quick flash back of the year of 2013, Rupee had reached to a level of approximately Rs.68 per Dollar. Rupee had depreciated to an all time low. The Current Account Deficit and Inflation were the Two main culprits that caused the Rupee depreciation. The appreciation in the Crude Oil prices and the depreciation of Rupee had a very drastic effect on our economy. Since then, the UPA government had started to focus on the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).

Now what is Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)?

FDI in simple terms means, the investing company may make its overseas investment in a number of ways - either by setting up a subsidiary or associate company in the foreign country, by acquiring shares of an overseas company, or through a merger or joint venture.

The accepted threshold for a foreign direct investment relationship, as defined by the OECD, is 10%. That is, the foreign investor must own at least 10% or more of the voting stock or ordinary shares of the investee company. An example of foreign direct investment would be an American company taking a majority stake in a company in India.

Given the current economic scenario I feel that FDI is a better option than Importing. I will tell you why….. When we Import we have to pay in terms of Foreign exchange, it leads to an outflow of Foreign exchange from our nation to the other. When this is the case, the demand of the foreign currency increases, which leads to the appreciation of the Foreign currency and obviously the depreciation of our Home currency and the depreciation of our Home currency has various disastrous effects for the Domestic economy, specially for an economy who is a Net Importer.

It is Vice Versa in case of FDI.

In FDI the foreigners come in India and bring foreign reserves along with them, this leads to appreciation of our currency. To ask the foreign businesses to come and manufacture their products in India, brings investments in infrastructure and also leads to increase in employment in the country. So what happens is, while importing we bring the foreign products and pay in foreign currency, but in FDI, we still get the foreign products as the foreign companies use their technology to manufacture in India, but we do not need to pay in Foreign currency. Thus the import bills that used to reduce our Foreign reserves would now be saved due to FDI.

In a scenario where there is a liquidity crunch in the country, development through FDI seems to be the best option rather than shelling out the Foreign reserves.

So now we understand the reason why India is focusing extensively on getting Foreign Direct Investments, as it will lead to stabilization of the currency and to bring in investments to develop our economy.

-Pratik R. Shah

Source : https://www.facebook.com/theinvestmentjargon/posts/691686247582193

Sunday, 6 September 2015

raghuram rajan

G20 finance ministers against competitive currency devaluation

Sainath Gupta 13:14:00

ANKARA: In a virtual disapproval of China's recent devaluation of yuan that triggered shocks in the global economy, world's 20 big economies today called for moving towards market-determined currency rates and resist from competitive devaluation.

The G20 group of economies also expect that monetary policy tightening is possible in some advanced economies, an euphemism for a likely interest rate, especially in the US.

"We reiterate our commitment to move toward more market-determined exchange rate systems and exchange rate flexibility to reflect underlying fundamentals, and avoid persistent exchange rate misalignments.

"We will refrain from competitive devaluations, and resist all forms of protectionism," said the communique issued at the end of the two-day meeting of the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors.

The statement did not name China but it comes against the backdrop of unsettling currency devaluation done by China recently that sent markets globally into a tailspin.

The G20 countries reaffirmed the role of macroeconomic and structural policies to achieve strong, sustainable and balanced growth.

Monetary policies will continue to support economic activity consistent with the central bank's mandate but monetary policy alone cannot lead to balanced growth, it said.

The Finance Ministers said they would carefully calibrate and clearly communicate their actions, especially against the backdrop of major monetary and other policy decisions, to minimise negative spillovers, mitigate uncertainty and promote transparency.

After reviewing the global economy, growth prospects and the recent volatility in the financial markets, the G20 communique welcomed the strengthening economic activity in some economies but felt global growth fell short of expectations.

"We have pledged to take decisive action to keep the economic recovery on track and we are confident the global economic recovery will gain speed. We will continue to monitor developments, assess spillovers and address emerging risks as needed to foster confidence and financial ability," it said.

The G20 nations noted that the need to boost actual and potential output growth was a key challenge for the global economy.

"We remain committed to timely and effective implementation of our growth strategies that include measures to support demand and lift potential growth. As we implement these strategies, we will take steps to promote greater inclusiveness, including to reduce income inequality," it said.

The Ministers said that boosting investment was a top priority for them and to this end, they have prepared country specific investment strategies that present concrete actions to improve investment.

"We will implement fiscal policies flexibly to take into account near-term economic conditions, so as to support growth and job creation, while putting debt as a share of GDP on a sustainable path.

Wednesday, 2 September 2015

forex

Strategies of Hedge Fund

Unknown 17:19:00

Hedge funds strategies and hedge Funds in themselves have made headlines over the years due to various reasons. You will be awe struck when you find out what kinds of perks are given by some hedge Fund Firms to their Analysts/Managers.

Former hedge fund Manager, Julian Robertson would fly his analysts for hiking and camping trips to the West as part of a team-building exercise.
Texan hedge fund manager Kyle Bass takes his whole investment team for spear fishing for a week in the Bahamas, every year.
Paul Tudor Jones orders his traders fried chicken on Fridays on a good week. But if they have a down week, they get sushi.
Blackstone, a hedge fund firm, has an in-house shoe shine person.
Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates has a luxury bus that picks up its analysts in the city every morning. The bus has an individual TV on the back of every seat along with drinks and snacks onboard.

So if you want to enjoy such perks, you have to be 100% amazing at your job.

And what’s the answer to be an Amazing Hedge Fund Analyst/Manager? Your ability to properly apply Hedge Funds Strategies to get those handsome returns for your investors.

In this article, we will be covering the common Hedge Fund Strategies that make these funds successful

The Major Hedge Funds Strategies are as follows:

# 1 Long/Short Equity Strategy

In this type of Hedge Fund Strategy, Investment manager maintains long and short positions in equity and equity derivative securities.
Thus, the fund manager will purchase the stocks that they feels is undervalued and Sell those which are overvalued.
Wide varieties of techniques are employed to arrive at an investment decision. It includes both quantitative and fundamental techniques.
Such a hedge fund strategy can be broadly diversified or narrowly focused on specific sectors.
It can range broadly in terms of exposure, leverage, holding period, concentrations of market capitalization and valuations.
Basically, the fund goes long and short in two competing companies in the same industry.
But most managers do not hedge their entire long market value with short positions.

Example of Long/Short Equity

If Tata Motors looks cheap relative to Hyundai, a trader might buy $100,000 worth of Tata Motors and short an equal value of Hyundai shares. The net market exposure is zero in such case.
But if Tata Motors does outperform Hyundai, the investor will make money no matter what happens to the overall market.
Suppose Hyundai rises 20% and Tata Motors rises 27%; the trader sells Tata Motors for $127,000, covers the Hyundai short for $120,000 and pockets $7,000.
If Hyundai falls 30% and Tata Motors falls 23%, he sells Tata Motors for $77,000, covers the Hyundai short for $70,000, and still pockets $7,000.
If the trader is wrong and Hyundai outperforms Tata Motors, however, he will lose money.

# 2 Market Neutral Strategy

By contrast, in market-neutral strategy, hedge funds target zero net-market exposure which means that shorts and longs have equal market value.
In such a case the managers generate their entire return from stock selection.
This strategy has a lower risk than the first strategy that we discussed, but at the same time the expected returns are also lower.

Example of Market Neutral Strategy

A fund manager may go long in the 10 biotech stocks that are expected to outperform and short the 10 biotech stocks that may underperform.
Therefore, in such a case the gains and losses will offset each other inspite how the actual market does.
So even if the sector moves in any direction the gain on the long stock is offset by a loss on the short.

# 3 Merger Arbitrage Strategy

In such a hedge fund strategy the stocks of two merging companies are simultaneously bought and sold to create a riskless profit.
This particular hedge fund strategy looks at the risk that the merger deal will not close on time, or at all.
Because of this small uncertainty, this is what happens:
The target company’s stock will sell at a discount to the price that the combined entity will have, when the merger is done.
This difference is the arbitrageur’s profit.
The merger arbitrageurs care only about the probability of the deal being approved and the time it will take to close the deal.

Example of Market Arbitrage Strategy

Consider these two companies– ABC Co. and XYZ Co.

Suppose ABC Co is trading at $20 per share when XYZ Co. comes along and bids $30 per share which is a 25% premium.
The stock of ABC will jump up, but will soon settle at some price which is higher than $20 and less than $30 until the takeover deal is closed.
Let’s say that the deal is expected to close at $30 and ABC stock is trading at $27.
To seize this price-gap opportunity, a risk arbitrageur would purchase ABC at $28, pay a commission, hold on to the shares, and eventually sell them for the agreed $30 acquisition price once the merger is closed.
Thus the arbitrageur makes a profit of $2 per share, or a 4% gain, less the trading fees.

# 4 Convertible Arbitrage

Convertibles generally are the hybrid securities including a combination of a bond with an equity option.
A convertible arbitrage hedge fund typically includes long convertible bonds and short a proportion of the shares into which they convert.
In simple terms it includes a long position on bonds and short position on common stock or shares.
It attempts to exploit profits when there is a pricing error made in the conversion factor i.e. it aims to capitalize on mispricing between a convertible bond and its underlying stock.
If the convertible bond is cheap or if it is undervalued relative to the underlying stock, the arbitrageur will take a long position in the convertible bond and a short position in the stock.
On the other hand, if the convertible bond is overpriced relative to the underlying stock, the arbitrageur will take a short position in the convertible bond and a long position in the underlying stock.
In such a strategy managers try to maintain a delta-neutral position so that the bond and stock positions offset each other as the market fluctuates.
(Delta Neutral Position- Strategy or Position due to which the value of the Portfolio remains unchanged when small changes occur in the value of the underlying security.)
Convertible arbitrage generally thrives on volatility.
The reason for the same is that, more the shares bounce, more the opportunities arise to adjust the delta-neutral hedge and book trading profits.

Example of Convertible Arbitrage Strategy

Visions Co. decides to issue a 1-year bond that has a 5% coupon rate. So on the first day of trading it has a par value of $1,000 and if you held it to maturity (1 year) you will have collected $50 of interest.
The bond is convertible to 50 shares of Vision’s common shares whenever the bondholder desires to get them converted. The stock price at that time was $20.
If Vision’s stock price rises to $25 then the convertible bondholder could exercise their conversion privilege. They can now receive 50 shares of Vision’s stock.
50 shares at $25 is worth $1250. So if the convertible bondholder bought the bond at issue ($1000), they have now made the profit of $250. If instead they decide that they want to sell the bond, they could command $1250 for the bond.
But what if the stock price drops to $15? The conversion comes to $750 ($15 *50). If this happens you could simply never exercise your right to convert to common shares. You can then collect the coupon payments and your original principal at maturity.

# 5 Capital Structure Arbitrage

It is a strategy in which a firm’s undervalued security is bought and its overvalued security is sold.
Its objective is to profit from the pricing inefficiency in the issuing firm’s capital structure.
It is a strategy used by many directional, quantitative and market neutral credit hedge funds.
It includes going long in one security in a company’s capital structure while at the same time going short in another security in that same company’s capital structure.
For example, long the sub-ordinate bonds and short the senior bonds, or long equity and short CDS.

Example of Capital Structure Arbitrage

An example could be – A news of particular company performing badly.

In such a case, both its bond and stock prices are likely to fall heavily. But the stock price will fall by a greater degree for several reasons like:

Stockholders are at a greater risk of losing out if the company is liquidated because of the priority claim of the bondholders
Dividends are likely to be reduced.
The market for stocks is usually more liquid as it reacts to news more dramatically.
Whereas on the other hand annual bond payments are fixed.
An intelligent fund manager will take advantage of the fact that the stocks will become comparatively much cheaper than the bonds.

# 6 Fixed-Income Arbitrage

This particular Hedge fund strategy makes profit from arbitrage opportunities in interest rate securities.
Here opposing positions are assumed in the market to take advantage of small price inconsistencies, limiting interest rate risk. The most common type of fixed-income arbitrage is swap-spread arbitrage.
In swap-spread arbitrage opposing long and short positions are taken in a swap and a Treasury bond.
Point to note is that such strategies provide relatively small returns and can cause huge losses sometimes.
Hence this particular Hedge Fund strategy is referred to as ‘Picking up nickels in front of a steamroller!’

Example of Fixed Income Arbitrage

A Hedge fund has taken the following position: Long 1,000 2-year Municipal Bonds at $200.

1,000 x $200 = $200,000 of risk (unhedged)
The Municipal bonds payout 6% annually interest rate – or 3% semi.
Duration is 2 years, so you receive the principal after 2 years.

After your first year, the amount that you have made assuming that you choose to reinvest the interest in a different asset will be:

$200,000 x .06 = $12,000

After 2 years, you will have made $12000*2= $24,000.

But you are at risk the entire time of:

The municipal bond not being paid back.
Not receiving your interest.

So you want to hedge this duration risk

The Hedge Fund Manager Shorts Interest Rate Swaps for two companies that pays out 6% annual interest rate (3% semi-annually) and is taxed at 5%.

$200,000 x .06 = $12,000 x (0.95) = $11,400

So for 2 years it will be: $11,400 x 2 = 22,800

Now if this is what the Manager pays out, then we must subtract this from the interest made on the Municipal Bond: $24,000-$22,800 = $1,200

Thus $1200 is the profit made.

# 7 Event Driven

In such a strategy the investment Managers maintain positions in companies that are involved in mergers, restructuring, tender offers, shareholder buybacks, debt exchanges, security issuance or other capital structure adjustments.

Example of Event Drive Strategy

One example of Event driven strategy is distressed securities.

In this type of strategy, the hedge funds buy the debt of companies that are in financial distress or have already filed for bankruptcy.

If the company has yet not filed for bankruptcy, the manager may sell short equity, betting the shares will fall when it does file.

# 8 Global Macro

This hedge fund strategy aims to make profit from large economic and political changes in various countries by focusing in bets on interest rates, sovereign bonds and currencies.
Investment managers analyze the economic variables and what impact they will have on the markets. Based on that they develop investment strategies.
The Managers analyze how macroeconomic trends will affect interest rates, currencies, commodities or equities around the world and take positions in the asset class that is most sensitive in their views.
Variety of techniques like systematic analysis, quantitative and fundamental approaches, long and short-term holding periods are applied in such case.
Managers usually prefer highly liquid instruments like futures and currency forwards for implementing this strategy.

Example of Global Macro Strategy

An excellent example of a Global Macro Strategy is George Soros shorting of the pound sterling in 1992. He then took a huge short position of over $10 billion worth of pounds.

He consequently made a profit from the Bank of England’s reluctance to either raise its interest rates to levels comparable to those of other European Exchange Rate Mechanism countries or to float the currency.

Soros made 1.1 billion on this particular trade.

# 9 Short Only

Short selling is an investment strategy which includes selling the shares that are anticipated to fall in value.
In order to successfully implement this strategy, the fund managers have to scour the financial statements, talk to the suppliers or competitors to dig any signs of trouble for that particular company.

Top Hedge Funds of 2014

Below are the Top Hedge Funds of 2014 with their respective hedge fund strategies-

source: Prequin

Also, note the the hedge funds Strategy distribution of the Top 20 hedge funds compiled by Prequin

Breakdown of Top 20 hedge fund by strategies 1

source: Prequin

Clearly, Top hedge funds follow Equity Strategy with 75% of the Top 20 funds following the same.
Relative Value strategy is followed by 10% of the Top 20 Hedge Funds
Macro Strategy, Event Driven and Multi-Strategy makes the remaining 15% of the strategy

Conclusion

Hedge Funds do generate some amazing compounded annual returns. However, these returns depend on your ability to properly apply Hedge Funds Strategies to get those handsome returns for your investors. While majority of the hedge funds apply Equity Strategy, others follow Relative Value, Macro Strategy, Event Driven etc. You can also master these hedge fund strategies by tracking the markets, investing and learning continuously.

So, which hedge fund strategy do you like the most?

Saturday, 22 August 2015

Stock Markets

Currencies Which are Ready to crash !!

Sainath Gupta 14:55:00

Kazakhstan’s currency fell by a record 23% in trade on Thursday, August 20th, after the country abandoned control of its exchange rate, as it became the latest emerging market to scrap efforts to prop up its currency before the U.S. Federal Reserve hikes interest rates.

Vietnam’s Central bank has devalued the nation’s currency on Wednesday, August 19th, for the third time this year and widened the its trading band, in the latest sign of stress in Asian exchange rates following a move last week by China to devalue its currency.

Here’s a quick summary of the currencies that are among those most at risk to crash in the very near future predominantly due to plummeting oil prices or/and trade exposure to China:

Saudi Arabia (riyal):

Foreign reserves: $672 billion.
The world’s largest oil exporter.
Speculators are betting on a break of the currency regime as crude oil tumbled to a 7-year low.
According to Bloomberg, the forwards fell to the weakest level since 2003, implying about a 1% decline in the currency over the next 12 months.

Turkmenistan (manat):

Net oil exporter.
Holds close economic ties to Russia.
Already devalued its currency by 19% in January.
SEB AB forecasts a further weakening of as much as 20% in the next 6 months.

Tajikistan (somoni):

Holds close ties with Kazakhstan (~11% of trade).
SEB forecasts a depreciation of 10-20%.

Armenia (dram):

Currency loss during the past 12 months: 15%.
25% of the country’s trade is with Russia.

Kyrgyzstan (som):

BMI Research team see the pressure on the som devaluation from the country’s close ties with Kazakhstan.

Egypt (pound):

According to Bloomberg, traders are betting the pound will weaken about 22% in a year.

Turkey (lira):

One of the world’s worst-performing currency markets since China’s devaluation on August 11th.
The extra pressure comes from an escalation in political violence and general developments.
The conflict with the neighboring Islamic State in Syria is also a drag.

Nigeria (naira):

Net oil exporter.
Accoriding to Bloomberg, trading in forwards indicates the currency will fall more than 20% against the dollar over the next 12 months.

Ghana (cedi):

Net oil exporter.
Main problems are fiscal imbalances.
Rising inflation and increasing debt will put some extra pressure to devalue the currency.

Zambia (kwacha):

Heavily exposed to China.
Copper accounts for about 70% of exports.

Malaysia (ringgit):

The currency fell to a 17-year low on Thursday.
Foreign-exchange reserves fell below $100 billion for the first time since 2010.