Showing posts with label equity. Show all posts
Showing posts with label equity. Show all posts

Monday, 30 November 2015

Savings vs Investments

19:20:00
I lost all my savings in the stock market scam of 1992.
Do I hear other murmurs?
"I lost all my savings in the panic that ensued after the nuclear tests in 1998."

"I lost all my savings when CRB Capital markets shut down."
"I lost all my savings in the new economy meltdown of 2000.”
Or if you want something current then try -
“My savings evaporated in the market mayhem caused by the global financial meltdown of 2008.”



Make no mistake, these are painful statements. All through our lives, we have been repeatedly advised that we must save money for a rainy day. And when we did just that, some of us suffered the misfortune of losing it all.
A penny saved...
...is a penny earned is what I was told by my favourite English teacher in middle school. Unfortunately, that penny doesn't get us very far anymore. Nobody told me about the silent enemy called inflation that could lay waste to the coin that the tooth fairy left under my pillow. Incidentally, I was also taught how to calculate interest by an excellent but stern mathematics teacher. But at that point I did not comprehend that interest was my best weapon against that stealthy enemy called inflation.
Realisation dawns
In high school I was introduced to the dismal science of economics and the world of basic finance. That’s when it all fell in place, the way to safeguard my savings from inflation was to put it in the bank or invest it somewhere. So that I could earn a rate of interest higher than inflation and protect my money.
Life rolled on
I entered the workplace at the age of 22. The saving habit came naturally to me. What with all those sayings ringing in my head, a penny saved...

I was determined. I wasn't going to let that sneaky character inflation get at my savings. No simple bank deposits for me. I was going to beat the hell out of inflation by investing my savings profitably in the stock market. In fact, I would beat the rate of inflation by a wide margin. I was too cool for my own good. And with impeccable timing, I caught the concluding part of the great Harshad Mehta orchestrated boom (caught in the Bulls' tail). But I caught the full impact of the downdraught that followed the famous boom. The rest is history.
Some more...
My financial situation, or shall I say penury, as a result of that debacle taught me some more lessons that none of my English, mathematics or economics textbooks had. A new host of aphorisms pored forth: No free lunch, no pain, no gain...

You see, it is true that you must save for the rainy day. But what follows as a natural corollary is that to protect your savings against inflation you must invest the same in some asset that will earn you returns. Be they shares, debentures, bonds, gold or even real estate.

And therein lies the crux of the issue. All these investment options have been associated with rags to riches as well as riches to rags stories. So investing is a risky business. The higher the return you expect from your investment, the higher the risk you will have to take. Your savings are not savings anymore. When you decide to invest your savings you are crossing the Rubicon threshold. Your savings have now taken the form of risk capital.
Risk capital?
Yes, because that is what it is. Don't panic at the thought. You could put your money in a government bond or in a national savings certificate and that would qualify as almost a zero risk investment. (Actually it is just the lowest risk investment available to you, but that's the topic of another debate). At the other end of the spectrum you have equities, which come with a high degree of risk. So do gold and real estate. But we'll discuss that some other time.

It's time to step back and spell out what we have learnt
  • Saving is the difference between Income and Expenditure
  • You must save for the rainy day
  • Savings have no form and must be protected from inflation
  • When you invest your savings, the same have morphed into risk capital
  • Risk capital can get eroded
  • Risk can be minimised by choosing to invest in low-risk investments
  • The risk associated with each investment changes with time and must be monitored carefully.
The take home from all of this is that the Rubicon must be crossed. This is not a Catch-22 situation. Yes, you must invest to protect your savings from inflation but that investment need not necessarily place your financial future at jeopardy. There are several low-risk investments in the market place. You can structure your investments based on your appetite for risk.
Words of wisdom
I am now wiser. Wise enough to encapsulate all of this into my own saying.
“It is not how much you save but where you invest it that counts” –-Sharekhan, circa 2000.

By the time you get to this point in the write-up, you may be feeling just a wee bit nervous about your savings. Nay, investments. Please do not. At the end of the day, investing your savings is like falling in love. It can be risky and it can hurt, but that doesn't stop us from falling in love, does it? For the heady and glorious experience...

The old adage, “It’s better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all” may assume a new meaning for you as you turn investor.

Monday, 21 September 2015

India VIX computation methodology

00:02:00



India VIX uses the computation methodology of CBOE, with suitable amendments to adapt to the NIFTY options order book using cubic splines, etc ,The factors considered in the computation of India VIX are
1) Time to expiry:

The time to expiry is computed in minutes instead of days in order to arrive at a level of precision expected by professional traders.

2) Interest Rate:

The relevant tenure NSE MIBOR rate (i.e 30 days or 90 days) is being considered as risk-free interest rate for the respective expiry months of the NIFTY option contracts

3) The forward index level:

India VIX is computed using out-of-the-money option contracts. Out-of-the-money option contracts are identified using forward index level. The forward index level helps in determining the at-the-money (ATM) strike which in turn helps in selecting the option contracts which shall be used for computing India VIX. The forward index level is taken as the latest available price of NIFTY future contract for the respective
expiry month.

4) Bid-Ask Quotes

The strike price of NIFTY option contract available just below the forward index level is taken as the ATM strike. NIFTY option Call contracts with strike price above the ATM strike and NIFTY option Put contracts with strike price below the ATM strike are identified as out-of-the-money options and best bid and ask quotes of such option contracts are used for computation of India VIX. In respect of strikes for which appropriate quotes are not available, values are arrived through interpolation using a statistical method namely “Natural Cubic Spline” After identification of the quotes, the variance (volatility squared) is computed separately for near and mid month expiry. The variance is computed by providing weightages to each of the NIFTY option contracts identified for the computation, as
per the CBOE method. The weightage of a single option contract is directly
proportional to the average of best bid-ask quotes of the option contract and inversely proportional to the option contract’s strike price

Wednesday, 2 September 2015

All You want to know about India Vix :

21:45:00

This article will be  discussing the relation between the volatility index (VIX) and the options pricing. If you are aware of the Black Scholes model of options pricing, the call and put options pricing is dependent on following factors –
1) Price of the underlying
2) Strike price
3) Risk free rate of interest
4) Time to expiry
5) Volatility
Out of these five factors, first four are factual in nature. You know the price of the underlying, strike price, risk free rate of interest, time to expiry at the time of writing an option. What you don’t know is the volatility in the near future and thus it is somewhat subjective in nature and derives from the anxiety or fear of the option writer. This volatility is called implied volatility and it reflects the sentiment of a option writer. If the option writer thinks that in the near future the volatility is going to be high, he would demand higher premium for writing an option and thus the prices of the options will be higher. On the other hand if he thinks the volatility is going to be lower, he will demand lesser premium for the options and thus lower option prices.
Now if we consider all the option writers present in the market. There would be millions of such people and if we try to calculate the average volatility from the options they have written, we can get a value which can describe the overall sentiments of the market about volatility. This is what Volatility Index really tells us. It uses the prices of the options to guess the future volatility, of course, after doing several other operations as well but in a nutshell, it is the reverse process of option pricing taken all the options being traded into account and thus calculating will be discussed below
Now what does a particular value of the India VIX indicates? The value of India VIX at the time of writing this article is 26 which means people are thinking that over the next 30 days markets can move up or down by 7.9% [26 divided by square root of 12] and demanding premium as per this value. Low value of VIX indicates stability in the market while higher value indicated stress, fear and anxiety. 
Since, the investors are more fearful of the downside, VIX is negatively correlated to the stock market index like Nifty or Sensex which means as the market index drops the VIX value increases and vice-versa. I will soon post another article, discussing the correlation between India VIX and Nifty and how VIX can be used as a hedging tool once India VIX futures and options are introduced.
If india vix falls drastically call premiums and put premiums both falls..

How India Vix is calculated?

India Vix Calculations
Before we understand how India Vix (India Volatility index) is calculated, let’s understand what is volatility and what is volatility index.
Volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk about the size of changes in a security or index value. A higher volatility means that a security’s value can potentially vary over a larger range of values. This means that the price of the security can change dramatically. A lower volatility means that a security’s value does not fluctuate dramatically, but changes in value at a steady pace over a period of time.
The Volatility Index, sometimes referred as the fear index, indicates the volatility in the market at present or in the near future. India VIX indicates the market’s perception of the expected near term volatility. All securities portfolios as well as stock market indices are subjected to volatility and thus the studying them can be helpful because options prices are chiefly governed by the volatility in the market.
Calculations for India VIX: India VIX is a volatility index based on the index option prices of NSE’s benchmark index NIFTY. India VIX uses the computation methodology of CBOE, with suitable amendments to adapt to the NIFTY options order book. India VIX is computed using the best bid and ask quotes of the out-of-the-money near and mid-month NIFTY option contracts, which are traded on the F&O segment of NSE. There are several factors which are used to calculate the index. Some important ones are these –
1) Time to Expiry: Time to expiry of the options contracts of Nifty that are selected to calculate the index. The time to expiry is computed in minutes instead of days in order to arrive at a level of precision expected by professional traders.
2) Interest Rate: The NSE Mibor rate of relevant tenure (i.e 30 days or 90 days) is being considered as risk-free interest rate for the respective expiry months of the NIFTY option contracts.
3) The Forward Index Level: A methodology called the forward index level is being used to select the contracts which will be used to calculate the index. India VIX is computed using out-of-the-money option contracts. Out-of-the-money option contracts are identified using forward index level. The forward index level helps in determining the at-the-money (ATM) strike which in turn helps in selecting the option contracts which shall be used for computing India VIX. The forward index level is taken as the latest available price of NIFTY future contract for the respective expiry month.
4) Bid-Ask Quotes: The strike price of NIFTY option contract available just below the forward index level is taken as the ATM strike. NIFTY option Call contracts with strike price above the ATM strike and NIFTY option Put contracts with strike price below the ATM strike are identified as out-of-the-money options and best bid and ask quotes of such option contracts are used for computation of India VIX. In respect of strikes for which appropriate quotes are not available, values are arrived through interpolation using a statistical method namely “Natural Cubic Spline”. After identification of the quotes, the variance (volatility squared) is computed separately for near and mid month expiry.
5) Weightage: The variance is computed by providing weightages to each of the NIFTY option contracts identified for the computation, as per the CBOE method. The weightage of a single options contract is directly proportional to the average of best bid-ask spread of that option contract and inversely proportional to the option contract’s strike price.
Finally, the variance for the near and mid month expiry computed separately are interpolated to get a single variance value with a constant maturity of 30 days to expiration. The square root of the computed variance value is multiplied by 100 to arrive at the India VIX value. In a nutshell, from usage point of view, higher the vix index value, higher the volatility.

Source - IndiaVix.Co.In

Thursday, 27 August 2015

The Peter Lynch Approach to Investing in "Understandable" Stocks

18:20:00

Courtesy :http://www.csulb.edu/
No modern-day investment "sage" is better known than Peter Lynch. Not only has his investment approach successfully passed the real-world performance test, but he strongly believes that individual investors have a distinct advantage over Wall Street and large money managers when using his approach. Individual investors, he feels, have more flexibility in following this basic approach because they are unencumbered by bureaucratic rules and short-term performance concerns.
Mr. Lynch developed his investment philosophy at Fidelity Management and Research, and gained his considerable fame managing Fidelity’s Magellan Fund. The fund was among the highest-ranking stock funds throughout Mr. Lynch’s tenure, which began in 1977 at the fund’s launching, and ended in 1990, when Mr. Lynch retired.
Peter Lynch’s approach is strictly bottom-up, with selection from among companies with which the investor is familiar, and then through fundamental analysis that emphasizes a thorough understanding of the company, its prospects, its competitive environment, and whether the stock can be purchased at a reasonable price. His basic strategy is detailed in his best-selling book "One Up on Wall Street"    which provides individual investors with numerous guidelines for adapting and implementing his approach. His most recent book, "Beating the Street" [Fireside/Simon & Schuster paperback, 1994], amplifies the theme of his first book, providing examples of his approach to specific companies and industries in which he has invested. These are the primary sources for this article.
The Philosophy: Invest in What You Know
Lynch is a "story" investor. That is, each stock selection is based on a well-grounded expectation concerning the firm’s growth prospects. The expectations are derived from the company’s "story"--what it is that the company is going to do, or what it is that is going to happen, to bring about the desired results.
The more familiar you are with a company, and the better you understand its business and competitive environment, the better your chances of finding a good "story" that will actually come true. For this reason, Lynch is a strong advocate of investing in companies with which one is familiar, or whose products or services are relatively easy to understand. Thus, Lynch says he would rather invest in "pantyhose rather than communications satellites," and "motel chains rather than fiber optics."
Lynch does not believe in restricting investments to any one type of stock. His "story" approach, in fact, suggests the opposite, with investments in firms with various reasons for favorable expectations. In general, however, he tends to favor small, moderately fast-growing companies that can be bought at a reasonable price.
Selection Process
Lynch’s bottom-up approach means that prospective stocks must be picked one-by-one and then thoroughly investigated--there is no formula or screen that will produce a list of prospective "good stories." Instead, Lynch suggests that investors keep alert for possibilities based on their own experiences--for instance, within their own business or trade, or as consumers of products.
The next step is to familiarize yourself thoroughly with the company so that you can form reasonable expectations concerning the future. However, Lynch does not believe that investors can predict actual growth rates, and he is skeptical of analysts’ earnings estimates.
Instead, he suggests that you examine the company’s plans--how does it intend to increase its earnings, and how are those intentions actually being fulfilled? Lynch points out five ways in which a company can increase earnings: It can reduce costs; raise prices; expand into new markets; sell more in old markets; or revitalize, close, or sell a losing operation. The company’s plan to increase earnings and its ability to fulfill that plan are its "story," and the more familiar you are with the firm or industry, the better edge you have in evaluating the company’s plan, abilities, and any potential pitfalls.
Categorizing a company, according to Lynch, can help you develop the "story" line, and thus come up with reasonable expectations. He suggests first categorizing a company by size. Large companies cannot be expected to grow as quickly as smaller companies.
Next, he suggests categorizing a company by "story" type, and he identifies six:
  • Slow Growers: Large and aging companies expected to grow only slightly faster than the U.S. economy as a whole, but often paying large regular dividends. These are not among his favorites.
  • Stalwarts: Large companies that are still able to grow, with annual earnings growth rates of around 10% to 12%; examples include Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, and Bristol-Myers. If purchased at a good price, Lynch says he expects good but not enormous returns--certainly no more than 50% in two years and possibly less. Lynch suggests rotating among the companies, selling when moderate gains are reached, and repeating the process with others that haven’t yet appreciated. These firms also offer downside protection during recessions.
  • Fast-Growers: Small, aggressive new firms with annual earnings growth of 20% to 25% a year. These do not have to be in fast-growing industries, and in fact Lynch prefers those that are not. Fast-growers are among Lynch’s favorites, and he says that an investor’s biggest gains will come from this type of stock. However, they also carry considerable risk.
  • Cyclicals: Companies in which sales and profits tend to rise and fall in somewhat predictable patterns based on the economic cycle; examples include companies in the auto industry, airlines and steel. Lynch warns that these firms can be mistaken for stalwarts by inexperienced investors, but share prices of cyclicals can drop dramatically during hard times. Thus, timing is crucial when investing in these firms, and Lynch says that investors must learn to detect the early signs that business is starting to turn down.
  • Turnarounds: Companies that have been battered down or depressed--Lynch calls these "no-growers"; his examples include Chrysler, Penn Central and General Public Utilities (owner of Three Mile Island). The stocks of successful turnarounds can move back up quickly, and Lynch points out that of all the categories, these upturns are least related to the general market.
  • Asset opportunities: Companies that have assets that Wall Street analysts and others have overlooked. Lynch points to several general areas where asset plays can often be found--metals and oil, newspapers and TV stations, and patented drugs. However, finding these hidden assets requires a real working knowledge of the company that owns the assets, and Lynch points out that within this category, the "local" edge--your own knowledge and experience--can be used to greatest advantage.
Selection Criteria
Analysis is central to Lynch’s approach. In examining a company, he is seeking to understand the firm’s business and prospects, including any competitive advantages, and evaluate any potential pitfalls that may prevent the favorable "story" from occurring. In addition, an investor cannot make a profit if the story has a happy ending but the stock was purchased at a too-high price. For that reason, he also seeks to determine reasonable value.
Here are some of the key numbers Lynch suggests investors examine:
Year-by-year earnings: The historical record of earnings should be examined for stability and consistency. Stock prices cannot deviate long from the level of earnings, so the pattern of earnings growth will help reveal the stability and strength of the company. Ideally, earnings should move up consistently.
Earnings growth: The growth rate of earnings should fit with the firm’s "story"--fast-growers should have higher growth rates than slow-growers. Extremely high levels of earnings growth rates are not sustainable, but continued high growth may be factored into the price. A high level of growth for a company and industry will attract a great deal of attention from both investors, who bid up the stock, and competitors, who provide a more difficult business environment.
The price-earnings ratio: The earnings potential of a company is a primary determinant of company value, but at times the market may get ahead of itself and overprice a stock. The price-earnings ratio helps you keep your perspective, by comparing the current price to most recently reported earnings. Stocks with good prospects should sell with higher price-earnings ratios than stocks with poor prospects.
The price-earnings ratio relative to its historical average: Studying the pattern of price-earnings ratios over a period of several years should reveal a level that is "normal" for the company. This should help you avoid buying into a stock if the price gets ahead of the earnings, or sends an early warning that it may be time to take some profits in a stock you own.
The price-earnings ratio relative to the industry average: Comparing a company’s price-earnings ratio to the industry’s may help reveal if the company is a bargain. At a minimum, it leads to questions as to why the company is priced differently--is it a poor performer in the industry, or is it just neglected?
The price-earnings ratio relative to its earnings growth rate: Companies with better prospects should sell with higher price-earnings ratios, but the ratio between the two can reveal bargains or overvaluations. A price-earnings ratio of half the level of historical earnings growth is considered attractive, while relative ratios above 2.0 are unattractive. For dividend-paying stocks, Lynch refines this measure by adding the dividend yield to the earnings growth [in other words, the price-earnings ratio divided by the sum of the earnings growth rate and dividend yield]. With this modified technique, ratios above 1.0 are considered poor, while ratios below 0.5 are considered attractive.
Ratio of debt to equity : How much debt is on the balance sheet? A strong balance sheet provides maneuvering room as the company expands or experiences trouble. Lynch is especially wary of bank debt, which can usually be called in by the bank on demand.
Net cash per share: Net cash per share is calculated by adding the level of cash and cash equivalents, subtracting long-term debt, and dividing the result by the number of shares outstanding. High levels provide a support for the stock price and indicate financial strength.
Dividends & payout ratio: Dividends are usually paid by the larger companies, and Lynch tends to prefer smaller growth firms. However, Lynch suggests that investors who prefer dividend-paying firms should seek firms with the ability to pay during recessions (indicated by a low percentage of earnings paid out as dividends), and companies that have a 20-year or 30-year record of regularly raising dividends.
Inventories: Are inventories piling up? This is a particularly important figure for cyclicals. Lynch notes that, for manufacturers or retailers, an inventory buildup is a bad sign, and a red flag is waving when inventories grow faster than sales. On the other hand, if a company is depressed, the first evidence of a turnaround is when inventories start to be depleted.
When evaluating companies, there are certain characteristics that Lynch finds particularly favorable. These include:
  • The name is boring, the product or service is in a boring area, the company does something disagreeable or depressing, or there are rumors of something bad about the company--Lynch likes these kinds of firms because their ugly duckling nature tends to be reflected in the share price, so good bargains often turn up. Examples he mentions include: Service Corporation International (a funeral home operator--depressing); and Waste Management (a toxic waste clean-up firm--disagreeable).
  • The company is a spin-off--Lynch says these often receive little attention from Wall Street, and he suggests that investors check them out several months later to see if insiders are buying.
  • The fast-growing company is in a no-growth industry--Growth industries attract too much interest from investors (leading to high prices) and competitors.
  • The company is a niche firm controlling a market segment or that would be difficult for a competitor to enter.
  • The company produces a product that people tend to keep buying during good times and bad--such as drugs, soft drinks, and razor blades--More stable than companies whose product sales are less certain.
  • The company is a user of technology--These companies can take advantage of technological advances, but don’t tend to have the high valuations of firms directly producing technology, such as computer firms.
  • There is a low percentage of shares held by institutions, and there is low analyst coverage--Bargains can be found among firms neglected by Wall Street.
  • Insiders are buying shares--A positive sign that insiders feel particularly confident about the firm’s prospects.
  • The company is buying back shares--Buybacks become an issue once companies start to mature and have cash flow that exceeds their capital needs. Lynch prefers companies that buy their shares back over firms that choose to expand into unrelated businesses. The buyback will help to support the stock price and is usually performed when management feels share price is favorable.
Characteristics Lynch finds unfavorable are:
  • Hot stocks in hot industries.
  • Companies (particularly small firms) with big plans that have not yet been proven.
  • Profitable companies engaged in diversifying acquisitions. Lynch terms these "diworseifications."
  • Companies in which one customer accounts for 25% to 50% of their sales.
Portfolio Building and Monitoring
As portfolio manager of Magellan, Lynch held as many as 1,400 stocks at one time. Although he was successful in juggling this many stocks, he does point to significant problems of managing such a large number of stocks. Individual investors, of course, will get nowhere near that number, but he is wary of over-diversification just the same. There is no point in diversifying just for the sake of diversifying, he argues, particularly if it means less familiarity with the firms. Lynch says investors should own however many "exciting prospects" that they are able to uncover that pass all the tests of research. Lynch also suggests investing in several categories of stocks as a way of spreading the downside risk. On the other hand, Lynch warns against investment in a single stock.
Lynch is an advocate of maintaining a long-term commitment to the stock market. He does not favor market timing, and indeed feels that it is impossible to do so. But that doesn’t necessarily mean investors should hold onto a single stock forever. Instead, Lynch says investors should review their holdings every few months, rechecking the company "story" to see if anything has changed either with the unfolding of the story or with the share price. The key to knowing when to sell, he says, is knowing "why you bought it in the first place." Lynch says investors should sell if:
  • The story has played out as expected and this is reflected in the price; for instance, the price of a stalwart has gone up as much as could be expected.
  • Something in the story fails to unfold as expected or the story changes, or fundamentals deteriorate; for instance, a cyclical’s inventories start to build, or a smaller firm enters a new growth stage.
For Lynch, a price drop is an opportunity to buy more of a good prospect at cheaper prices. It is much harder, he says, to stick with a winning stock once the price goes up, particularly with fast-growers where the tendency is to sell too soon rather than too late. With these firms, he suggests holding on until it is clear the firm is entering a different growth stage.
Rather than simply selling a stock, Lynch suggests "rotation"--selling the company and replacing it with another company with a similar story, but better prospects. The rotation approach maintains the investor’s long-term commitment to the stock market, and keeps the focus on fundamental value.
Summing It Up
Lynch offers a practical approach that can be adapted by many different types of investors, from those emphasizing fast growth to those who prefer more stable, dividend-producing investments. His strategy involves considerable hands-on research, but his books provide lots of practical advice on what to look for in an individual firm, and how to view the market as a whole.
Lynch sums up stock investing and his outlook best:
"Frequent follies notwithstanding, I continue to be optimistic about America, Americans, and investing in general. When you invest in stocks, you have to have a basic faith in human nature, in capitalism, in the country at large, and in future prosperity in general. So far, nothing’s been strong enough to shake me out of it."
The Peter Lynch Approach in Brief
Philosophy and style
Investment in companies in which there is a well-grounded expectation concerning the firm’s growth prospects and in which the stock can be bought at a reasonable price. A thorough understanding of the company and its competitive environment is the only "edge" investors have over other investors in finding reasonably valued stocks.
Criteria for initial consideration
Select from industries and companies with which you are familiar and have an understanding of the factors that will move the stock price. Make sure you can articulate a prospective stock’s "story line"-the company’s plans for increasing growth and any other series of events that will help the firm-and make sure you understand and balance them against any potential pitfalls. Categorizing the stocks among six major "story" lines is helpful when evaluating prospective stocks. Specific factors depend on the firm’s "story," but these factors should be examined:
  • Year-by-year earnings: Look for stability and consistency, and an upward trend.
  • P/E relative to historical average: The price-earnings ratio should be in the lower range of its historical average.
  • P/E relative to industry average: The price-earnings ratio should be below the industry average.
  • P/E relative to earnings growth rate: A price-earnings ratio of half the level of historical earnings growth is attractive; relative ratios above 2.0 are unattractive. For dividend-paying stocks, use the price-earnings ratio divided by the sum of the earnings growth rate and dividend yield-ratios below 0.5 are attractive, ratios above 1.0 are poor.
  • Net cash per share: The net cash per share relative to share price should be high.
  • Dividends and payout ratio: For investors seeking dividend-paying firms, look for a low payout ratio (earnings per share divided by dividends per share) and long records (20 to 30 years) of regularly raising dividends.
  • Inventories: Particularly important for cyclicals, inventories that are piling up are a warning flag, particularly if growing faster than sales.
  • Debt-equity ratio: The company’s balance sheet should be strong, with low levels of debt relative to equity financing, and be particularly wary of high levels of bank debt

Other favorable characteristics
  • The name is boring, the product or service is in a boring area, the company does something disagreeable or depressing, or there are rumors of something bad about the company.
  • The company is a spin-off.
  • The fast-growing company is in a no-growth industry.
  • The company is a niche firm controlling a market segment.
  • The company produces a product that people tend to keep buying during good times and bad.
  • The company can take advantages of technological advances, but is not a direct producer of technology.
  • The is a low percentage of shares held by institutions and there is low analyst coverage.
  • Insiders are buying shares.
  • The company is buying back shares.
Unfavorable characteristics
  • Hot stocks in hot industries.
  • Companies (particularly small firms) with big plans that have not yet been proven.
  • Profitable companies engaged in diversifying acquisitions. Lynch terms these "diworseifications."
  • Companies in which one customer accounts for 25% to 50% of their sales.
Stock monitoring and when to sell
  • Do not diversify simply to diversify, particularly if it means less familiarity with the firms. Invest in whatever number of firms is large enough to still allow you to fully research and understand each firm. Invest in several categories of stock for diversification.
  • Review holdings every few months, rechecking the company "story" to see if anything has changed. Sell if the "story" has played out as expected or something in the story fails to unfold as expected or fundamentals deteriorate.
  • Price drops usually should be viewed as an opportunity to buy more of a good prospect at cheaper prices.
  • Consider "rotation"-selling played-out stocks with stocks with a similar story, but better prospects. Maintain a long-term commitment to the stock market and focus on relative fundamental values.

10 GOLDEN RULES OF INVESTING IN STOCKS

18:17:00



Courtesy : ET


The lure of big money has always thrown investors into the lap of stock markets.However, making money in equities is not easy. It not only requires oodles of patience and discipline, but also a great deal of research and a sound understanding of the market, among others. Added to this is the fact that stock market volatility in the last few years has left investors in a state of confusion. They are in a dilemma whether to invest, hold or sell in such a scenario. Although no sure-shot formula has yet been discovered for success in stock markets, here are some golden rules which,if followed prudently, may increase your chances of getting a good return

1. Avoid the herd mentality:

The typical buyer's decision is usually heavily influenced by the actions of his acquaintances, neighbors or relatives. Thus, if everybody around is investing in a particular stock, the tendency for potential investors is to do the same.But this strategy is bound to backfire in the long run. No need to say that you Should always avoid having the herd mentality if you don't want to lose your hard-earned money in stock markets. The world's greatest investor Warren Buffett was surely not wrong when he said, 'Be fearful when others are greedy,and be greedy when others are fearful!'

2  Take informed decision :

Proper research should always be undertaken before investing in stocks. But that is rarely done. Investors generally go by the name of a company or the industry they belong to. This is, however, not the right way of putting one’s money into the stock market.

3 Invest in business you understand :

Never invest in a stock. Invest in a business instead. And invest in a business you understand. In other words, before investing in a company, you should know what business the company is in.

4. Don't try to time the market:

One thing that even Warren Buffett doesn't do is to try to time the stock market,although he does have a very strong view on the price levels appropriate to individual shares. A majority of investors, however, do just the opposite, something that financial planners have always been warning them to avoid, and thus lose their hard-earned money in the process. 'So, you should never try to time the market. In fact, nobody has ever done this successfully and consistently over multiple business or stock market cycles.Catching the tops and bottoms is a myth. It is so till today and will remain so in the future. In fact, in doing so, more people have lost far more money than people who have made money

5. Follow a disciplined investment approach:

Historically it has been witnessed that even great bull runs have shown bouts of
panic moments. The volatility witnessed in the markets has inevitably made investors lose money despite the great bull runs.However, the investors who put in money systematically, in the right shares and held on to their investments patiently have been seen generating outstanding returns. Hence, it is prudent to have patience and follow a disciplined investment approach besides keeping a long-term broad picture in mind.

6. Do not let emotions cloud your judgement:

Many investors have been losing money in stock markets due to their inability to control emotions, particularly fear and greed. In a bull market, the lure of quick wealth is difficult to resist. Greed augments when investors hear stories of fabulous returns being made in the stock market in a short period of time. 'This leads them to speculate, buy shares of unknown companies or create heavy positions in the futures segment without really understanding the risks involved,' says Kapur.Instead of creating wealth, these investors thus burn their fingers very badly the moment the sentiment in the market reverses.In a bear market, on the other hand, investors panic and sell their shares at rock-bottom prices. Thus, fear and greed are the worst emotions to feel when investing, and it is better not to be guided by them.

7  Create a broad portfolio :

Diversification of portfolio across asset classes and instruments is the key factor to earn optimum returns on investments with minimum risk.Level of diversification depends on each investor's risk taking capacity 

8. Have realistic expectations.

There's nothing wrong with hoping for the 'best' from your investments, but you could be heading for trouble if your financial goals are based on unrealistic assumptions.For instance, lots of stocks have generated more than 50 per cent returns during the great bull run of recent years. However, it doesn't mean that you should always expect the same kind of return from the stock markets. Therefore, when Warren Buffett says that earning more than 12 per cent in stock is pure dumb luck and you laugh at it, you're surely
inviting trouble for yourself.

9. Invest only your surplus fund:

If you want to take risk in a volatile market like this, then see whether you have surplus funds which you can afford to lose. It is not necessary that you will lose money in the present scenario. You investments can give you huge gains too in the months to come.But no one can be hundred percent sure. That is why you will have to take risk.No need to say that invest only if you are flush with surplus funds.

10. Monitor rigorously:

We are living in a global village. Any important event happening in any part of the world has an impact on our financial markets. Hence we need to constantly monitor our portfolio and keep affecting the desired changes in it. If you can't review your portfolio due to time constraint or lack of knowledge, then you should take the help of a good financial planner or someone who is capable of doing that. 'If you can't even do that, then stock investing is not for you. Better put your money in safe or less-risky instruments.

How to Build a Stock Portfolio

18:16:00



Courtesy :Wikihow

The stock market and its potential for risk intimidates many people. Nonetheless, a well-built stock portfolio is likely to outperform other investments over time. It is possible to build a stock portfolio alone, but a broker can help. Knowing your goals and your willingness to take risks in advance, as well as understanding the nature of the market, can help you build a successful portfolio.

Part 1  Designing Your Portfolio


  1. Know what you're willing to invest. As you invest, you'll need to balance your potential risks against your potential rewards. A portfolio's assets are typically determined by the investor's goals, willingness to take risks, and the length of time the investor intends to hold his portfolio. Some of the most important factors to consider in making these decisions are:
    • The investor's age
    • How much time the investor is willing to spend allowing his investments to grow
    • Amount of capital the investor is willing to invest
    • Projected capital needs for the future

     2
    1. Decide what kind of investor you'll be. Portfolios usually fall somewhere in the spectrum between aggressive, or high-risk portfolios, and conservative, or low-risk portfolios. Conservative investors simply try to protect and maintain the value of a portfolio, while aggressive investors tend to take risks with the expectation that some of those risks will pay off.
      • Understand that your financial goals may change over time, and adjust your portfolio accordingly. Generally, the younger you are, the more risk you can afford or are willing to take. You may be better served with a growth-oriented portfolio. The older you become, the more you'll think about retirement income, and may be better served with an income-oriented portfolio.
      3
      Divide your capital. Once you've decided what kind of investor you'd like to be and what type of portfolio you want to build, you'll need to determine how you intend to spread around your capital. Most investors who are new to the market don't know how to pick stocks. Some important factors include:
      • Determining which sector(s) to invest in. A sector is the category a given industry is placed in.
      • Knowing the market capitalization (aka market cap), which is determined by multiplying a given company's outstanding shares by the current price of one share on the market.

      Part 2 : Making Investments


      1. Understand the different kinds of stocks. Stocks represent an ownership stake in the company that issues them. The money generated from the sale of stock is used by the company for its capital projects, and the profits generated by the company's operation may be returned to investors in the form of dividends. Stocks come in two varieties: common and preferred. Preferred stocks are so called because holders of these stocks are paid dividends before owners of common stocks. Most stocks, however, are common stocks, which can be subdivided into the categories below:
        • Growth stocks are those projected to increase in value faster than the rest of the market, based on their prior performance record. They may entail more risk over time but offer greater potential rewards in the end.
        • Income stocks are those that do not fluctuate much but have a history of paying out better dividends than other stocks. This category can include both common and preferred stocks.
        • Value stocks are those that are "undervalued" by the market and can be purchased at a price lower than the underlying worth of the company would suggest. The theory is that when the market "comes to its senses," the owner of such a stock would stand to make a lot of money.
        • Blue-chip stocks are those that have performed well for a long enough period of time that they are considered safe investments. They may not grow as rapidly as growth stocks or pay as well as income stocks, but they can be depended upon for steady growth or steady income. They are not, however, immune from the fortunes of the market.
        • Defensive stocks are shares in companies whose products and services people buy, no matter what the economy is doing. They include the stocks of food and beverage companies, pharmaceutical companies and utilities (among others).
        • Cyclical stocks, in contrast, rise and fall with the economy. They include stocks in such industries as airlines, chemicals, home building and steel manufacturers.
        • Speculative stocks include the offerings of young companies with new technologies and older companies with new executive talent. They draw investors looking for something new or a way to beat the market. The performance of these stocks is especially unpredictable, and they are sometimes considered to be a high-risk investment.

      2. Analyze stock fundamentals. Fundamentals is the term given to the pool of qualitative and quantitative data that are used to determine whether or not a stock option is a worthwhile investment in a long-term analysis of the market. Analyzing a company's fundamentals is usually the first step in determining whether or not an investor will buy shares in that company. It is imperative to analyze fundamentals in order to arrive at a company's intrinsic value - that is, the company's actual value as based on perception of all the tangible and intangible aspects of the business, beyond the current market value.
        • In analyzing the fundamentals of a company, the investor is trying to determine the future value of a company, with all of its projected profits and losses factored in.

      3. Analyze qualitative factors. Qualitative factors, such as the expertise and experience of a company's management, various courses of industry cycles, the strength of a company's research and development incentives, and a company's relationship with its workers, are important to take into account when deciding whether or not to invest in a company's stock. It's also important to understand how the company generates its profits and what that company's business model look like in order to have a broad spectrum of qualitative information about that company's stock options.
        • Try researching companies online before you invest. You should be able to find information about the company's managers, CEO, and board of directors.

        4.
        Look at the price-to-earnings ratio. The P/E ratio can be figured as either the stock's current price against its earnings per share for the last 12 months ("trailing P/E") or its projected earnings for the next 12 months ("anticipated P/E"). A stock selling for $10 per share that earns 10 cents per share has a P/E ratio of 10 divided by 0.1 or 100; a stock selling for $50 per share that earns $2 per share has a P/E ratio of 50 divided by 2 or 25. You want to buy stock with a relatively low P/E ratio.
        • When looking at P/E ratio, figure the ratio for the stock for several years and compare it to the P/E ratio for other companies in the same industry as well as for indexes representing the entire market, such as the Nifty,Sensex..etc

      5
       
      Look at the return on equity. Also called return on book value, this figure is the company's income after taxes as a percentage of its total book value. It represents how well shareholders are profiting from the company's success. As with P/E ratio, you need to look at several years' worth of returns on equity to get an accurate picture.
       
       
       6 
       
       
                Look at total return. Total return includes earnings from dividends as     well as changes in the value of the stock. This provides a means of comparing the stock with other types of investments.
       
       
      1. Try investing in companies trading below their current worth. While a broad spectrum of stock investments is important, analysts often recommend buying stock in companies that are trading for lower than they are worth. This sort of value investing does not, however, mean buying "junk" stocks, or stocks that are steadily declining. Value investments are determined by comparing intrinsic market value against the company's current stock share price, without looking at the short-term market fluctuations.
        8
        Try investing in growth stocks. Growth stocks are investments in companies that exhibit or are predicted to grow significantly faster than other stocks in the market. This involves analyzing a given company's present performance against its past performance amid the industry's ever-fluctuating climate.
         

        Part 3 : Maintaining Your Portfolio

        1
         
        Avoid dipping into investments. Once you've invested capital in a stock, it's important to let the stock grow for at least a year without selling your shares. Consider that money that for all intents and purposes cannot be withdrawn and spent elsewhere.
        • As part of investing for the long term, determine the amount of money you can afford to commit to the stock market for five years or longer, and set that aside for investing. Money you'll need in a shorter period of time should be invested in shorter-term investments such as money-market accounts, CDs , Treasury bonds, bills or notes.

        2
         
        Diversify your portfolio. No matter how successful a stock might be doing at the moment, the price and value of stocks are bound to fluctuate. Diversifying your investment portfolio can help you avoid this pitfall by spreading around your money to a number of stocks.
        • A well-diversified portfolio is important because in the event that one or more sectors of the economy start to decline, a diversified portfolio will remain strong over time and reduce the likelihood of taking a significant hit as the market fluctuates.
        • Don't just diversify across the spectrum of asset classes. Some experts recommend you should also diversify your stock picks within each asset class represented in your portfolio.
        3
         
        Review your portfolio (but not too often). Anticipate that the market will fluctuate. If you check your stocks every day, you might end up feeling anxious over the value of your investments as things go up or down. But by the same token, you should check on your investments periodically. Some experts recommend checking on the quarterly earnings reports of a given company to see if your predictions for that company are holding true. Make changes as necessary, but don't jump ship every time a share reports a minor decrease in value.

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